The Cromford Report – Daily Observations June 2018

    June 29 – Our regular look at the Cromford® Market Index for the single-family markets in the largest 17 cities is below:

    Here we see 9 cities improving for sellers over the past month and 8 deteriorating.

    The cities at the bottom of the table are improving – Scottsdale, Goodyear and Paradise Valley in particular, with Surprise also up 8%.

    Most of the falls were modest with the largest being Avondale at -6% but still top of the league.

    All 17 cities are in the seller’s market zone over 110.

    June 28 – We often get asked to produce statistics for subdivisions. This is usually a case of be careful what you ask for, because in almost all cases, the results are very unsatisfactory. The reason is that good quality statistics require large sample sizes. Particularly if you are trying to measure prices in any way, a small number of sales will result in meaningless statistics. You can certainly do the math, but the results will be worthless.

    There are over 28,000 legal subdivisions in Maricopa and Pinal counties so the average number of annual sales per subdivision is less than 4 and the average number of sales per month is zero. 4 is not just a small sample, it is a negligible sample. You would not conduct a political opinion survey by asking 4 people. Useful statistics cannot be obtained for legal subdivisions. The only statistics that have value for them are sales counts and turnover rate, and even those will vary enormously from year to year.

    We recommend an annual sales rate of at least 400 homes before attempting to take seriously any price statistics for that segment. This is especially true if you are trying to measure average appreciation. There are a few large Master Planned Communities that get close to or even exceed that number, but they are very few indeed. Even a huge community like McDowell Mountain Ranch (containing dozens of legal subdivisions) averages only 250 sales a year. To compensate for the low sample size, we have to measure over very long periods, Anything less than a quarter is pointless and annual measurements are preferred.

    The same problems arise with some ZIP codes. Many people do not realize that ZIP codes vary enormously in the number of homes they contain. Some can have as many as 20,000 (e.g. 85032, 85308, 85383) but some have fewer than 50. If we are looking for at least 400 sales a year and there are fewer than 4,000 homes in the ZIP code, we are unlikely to be happy with the statistics we obtain for that ZIP code. When we look at annual sales by ZIP code there are 39 of the 155 ZIP codes in Maricopa and Pinal that do not make the grade for meaningful appreciation statistics. These include some significant ones like 85355, 85123, 85305, 85128, 85263, 85378 and 85377.

    There are ZIP codes that are definitely big enough for analysis. The top 10 by annual sales rate are:

    1. Queen Creek 85142 (3,116 sales per year) – includes areas of San Tan Valley in Pinal as well as the town of Queen Creek
    2. Peoria 85383 (3,071)
    3. Buckeye 85326 (2,443)
    4. Mesa 85212 (2,255)
    5. Maricopa 85138 (2,094)
    6. Buckeye 85396 (2,072)
    7. Goodyear 85338 (2,036)
    8. San Tan Valley 85140 (1,991)
    9. San Tan Valley 85143 (1,950)
    10. Sun City 85351 (1,903)

    Note that Phoenix itself is plagued by tiny ZIP codes. 85032, 85041, 85018, 85016, 85020 and 85051 are the big ones, but 85034, 85004, 85012, 85003, 85054, 85045 and 85007 are all too small having under 400 sales a year.

    Please remember to consider sample size when interpreting statistics, particularly if you are using a lot of filters in the Tableau charts.

    June 27 – The Census Bureau has released the new single-family home permit counts for May and for Maricopa and Pinal counties the total is 2,112. This is the second month running with a total over 2,000 since April’s total was 2,185. Prior to this, the last month with a number over 2,000 was way back in August 2007.

    The growth in single-family permits between May 2017 and May 2018 was 115 or 5.8%. The growth in single-family new home sales between the same two months was 15.3%, so permit growth is not running away.

    In fact we need to put this number into historical context. At no time between 1996 and 2006 did the annual number of permits drop below 29,500. In 2018, 10 years beyond the collapse of the housing market, we are still forecasting a total of less than 24,000 permits. It is really not surprising that we are experiencing a shortage of supply.

    June 26 – The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® report was released today covering sales between February and April. The 20 cities are ranked as follows based on the month-to-month change in their index:

    1. Seattle +2.69%
    2. Boston +1.86%
    3. Minneapolis +1.82%
    4. Las Vegas +1.61%
    5. Detroit +1.41%
    6. Denver +1.19%
    7. Chicago +1.18%
    8. Washington +1.14%
    9. Portland +1.09%
    10. San Francisco +0.99%
    11. San Diego +0.98%
    12. Dallas +0.90%
    13. Los Angeles +0.89%
    14. Cleveland 0.86%
    15. Phoenix +0.84%
    16. Atlanta +0.82%
    17. Charlotte +0.77%
    18. Miami +0.50%
    19. Tampa +0.47%
    20. New York -0.58%

    At 0.84% for a single month, Phoenix may seem to be moving fast, but it ranked only 15th out of 20 and fell well below the national average of +1.01%

    The year-over-year changes look like this:

    1. Seattle +13.1%
    2. Las Vegas +12.7%
    3. San Francisco +10.9%
    4. Denver 8.6%
    5. Los Angeles +8.3%
    6. San Diego +7.8%
    7. Detroit +7.4%
    8. Tampa +7.2%
    9. Boston +6.9%
    10. Phoenix +6.8%
    11. Minneapolis +6.5%
    12. Charlotte +6.0%
    13. Portland +5.9%
    14. Dallas +5.7%
    15. Atlanta +5.5%
    16. Miami +5.0%
    17. Cleveland +4.9%
    18. New York +4.0%
    19. Washington +3.2%
    20. Chicago +3.0%

    In this longer term picture, Phoenix fell right in the middle of the table and just above the national average of +6.4%

    June 25 – Zillow has purchased 16 homes in the Greater Phoenix area since they started their iBuyer program. Only 6 are listed on ARMLS while the other 10 are marked as “coming soon” at the Zillow site. There are no closed sales but one homes is under contract accepting backup offers. The other 2 major iBuyers rarely use UCB status.

    Their first home purchased May 18 is still active but has had a price cut from $425,000 to $418,500, which is $8,500 more than they paid for it.

    In the last month Opendoor has completed 295 purchases and 225 sales while OfferPad has completed 103 purchases and 84 sales.

    For their sales, Opendoor averaged a sales price of $247,775 on homes that cost them an average of $235,638, so their gross margin was 4.9%. They also made buyer concessions averaging $1,954 and paid an average of $6,848 in buyer’s agent commission. So their gross margin after these selling expenses was 1.3%.

    For their sales, OfferPad averaged a sales price of $265,106 on homes that cost them an average of $245,768, so their gross margin was 6.9%. They made buyer concessions averaging $1,850 and paid average buyer’s broker commission of $7,623. So their gross margin after these selling expenses was 3.3%.

    We are not able to report on the fees charged to home sellers or the refurbishing expenses as these are not revealed to the public.

    June 22 – Each week we like to check how new listings compare with the same point in the same month in prior years. This is only possible once a week since you have to compare full weeks. There are far more new listings on Thursdays and Fridays so it is only a fair comparison when the date can be divided by 7. After June 21, 2017 we had 6,749 new listings activated for Greater Phoenix and after June 21, 2018 we had 6,746. This is a negligible difference. We conclude that the overall rate of new supply is almost identical.

    Of course the listings in 2018 tend to be higher priced than in 2017.

    • We have had 153 new listings over $1 million versus 167 in the first 3 weeks of June last year (down 8%)
    • We have had 682 new listings between $500,000 and $1 million versus 605 (up 13%)
    • We have had 3,117 new listings between $250,000 and $500,000 versus 2,721 (up 15%)
    • We have had 2,794 new listings under $250,000 versus 3,256 (down 14%)

    So we are getting fewer new listings at the top and bottom but more in the mid-range up to $1 million.

    There is little change in the mix by dwelling-type

    Pinal county is getting fewer new listings than in 2017 (down 7%) while Maricopa is getting very slightly more (up 1%)

    June 21 – Once again we take a look at the single-family market in the 17 largest cities, represented by the Cromford® Market Index and how it has changed over the past month.

    Cities improving for sellers outnumber those deteriorating by 9 to 7.

    The biggest improvements are in Scottsdale, Goodyear and Surprise.

    None of the backwards movements exceeded 5%

    Paradise Valley moved out of the balanced zone and into a seller’s market.

    Nothing to scare sellers or give buyers much relief in any of this data.

    June 20 – Here are the major and secondary cities ranked by the change in the annual single-family sales rate over the past 12 months.

    1. Buckeye +17.2%
    2. Fountain Hills +16.3%
    3. Litchfield Park +13.2%
    4. El Mirage +10.2%
    5. Paradise Valley +10.0%
    6. Arizona City +8.5%
    7. Queen Creek +8.5%
    8. Apache Junction +7.7%
    9. Maricopa +7.2%
    10. Surprise +6.9%
    11. Peoria +6.3%
    12. Gold Canyon +6.0%
    13. Tempe +5.1%
    14. Scottsdale +4.7%
    15. Phoenix +2.8%
    16. Sun City +2.7%
    17. Cave Creek +2.3%
    18. Mesa +2.2%
    19. Tolleson +1.1%
    20. Sun Lakes +0.7%
    21. Goodyear +0.5%
    22. Sun City West +0.0
    23. Glendale -0.4%
    24. Gilbert -2.0%
    25. Avondale -3.9%
    26. Chandler -4.2%
    27. Anthem -8.7%
    28. Casa Grande -9.8%
    29. Laveen -17.1%

    Quite a wide range from -17% to +17%. Note the strong growth in some of the more expensive areas like Paradise Valley and Fountain Hills.

    A growing annual sales rate is generally a positive indicator. The opposite is usually true of a declining rate, although in some cases (e.g. Avondale) the underlying cause is a lack of inventory rather than a lack buying interest.

    June 19 – My favorite Tableau chart is Days of Inventory. The reason is that it packs a lot of information into just one chart and shows you the history since 2011 as well as current conditions. It is updated weekly and currently shows 57.8 days of inventory for Greater Phoenix as a whole. This excludes active listings with an existing contract (UCB or CCBS) even though they still count as active to ARMLS.

    The lower the number the more the market favors sellers over buyers. 57.8 is the lowest we have seen since 2012 but we got down to 42.9 then. However the 2012 number was driven down by investors and their ravenous appetite for bank-owned homes. If we filter out everything except normal transactions then we stand at 58 days, lower than any point in the last 8 years.

    If you are expecting the market to weaken then watch this chart. It will have to rise much like it did in the second half of 2013. No-one knows the future for sure, but this chart will quickly indicate if the market is headed for a change.

    It is always possible to find sectors of the market that are behaving differently from the rest. For example the city of Mesa stands at just 41 days, but if you restrict the chart to homes over $1 million, there are 517 days of inventory, not far below the long term average of 587. The high-end market in Mesa therefore feels nothing like the frenzied market at the low end. If we confine ourselves to homes in the sector between $175,000 and $250,000, so beloved of iBuyers and landlords, there are only 21 days of inventory, less than a third of the long term average of 68. It therefore indicates why we see strong appreciation at the low end and weak appreciation at the top.

    You can conduct similar analyses for most cities round the valley. One exception to the pattern is Anthem and New River, an area which seems to be losing the plot. Here there are 108.5 days of inventory, which is above the long term average of 94 and the annual average of 100. This a distinctly negative signal, but it does seem to be confined to this specific area. It was down at 72 as recently as the start of 2018. This illustrates how the Days of Inventory chart reinforces the message we get from the Cromford® Market Index. Both are leading indicators.

    June 18 – Hybrid agency Purplebricks announced that they will be launching into the Phoenix and Las Vegas housing markets this week. Although they are virtually unknown in Phoenix as yet, Purplebricks was founded in 2012 by Northern Irish entrepreneurs Michael and Kenny Bruce. They quickly rose to dominate the UK online estate agency market, where they now have over 5% of the 520,000 or so listings in the country creating strong competition to the traditional agencies. After launching in California in 2017, they have teamed with local broker Marcus Fleming to recruit agents to promote their business model in the Phoenix area.

    Purplebricks charges a flat non-refundable fee of $3,600 for listing a home for sale and provides a “Local Real Estate Expert” to act as the seller’s agent. Much of the selling process is performed through their web-site. Properties are listed with the local MLS and buyer’s agents are paid commission in the normal way. So the cost to the seller is $3,600 plus the commission to the buyer’s agent (typically 3%). This not as attractive a deal as they offer in the UK, where there are no buyer’s agents and their fixed price is £849 outside London and £1,199 in the London area. At the moment the higher fee is equivalent to $1,600. It therefore remains to be seen if their value proposition will click in Arizona. Some would argue their closest competitor would be Redfin. Redfin charges a 1.5% fee to sellers rather than a flat fee.

    The expected benefits for their “Local Real Estate Experts” are that they spend a great deal of corporate money and effort on advertising and tend to generate a lot of seller leads. As of today there are 12 agents shown at the ADRE site who are part of Purplebricks. A large number of these had prior experience with Redfin. We should expect their recruiting efforts to continue. At the moment there is just 1 for-sale listing for Purplebricks on ARMLS, but then they do not launch officially until tomorrow.

    June 15 – Below is our regular table showing the Cromford® Market Index for the 17 largest cities and their single-family housing markets;

    Here we see 11 cities showing a swing in favor of sellers and 6 improving for buyers.

    Scottsdale is benefitting from lower supply and strong demand and is out highest percentage gainer with 12% over the past month. Surprise is just behind with a 10% improvement. The remaining improvements are rather modest except for Tempe and Maricopa at 7%.

    Buckeye and Glendale were the biggest movers in favor of buyers, while Phoenix continues to decline.

    Not in the table above, Anthem is down to 95.9, its lowest level since 2014 and is showing an advantage to buyers.

    June 14 – As I gaze at the ranking table for cities by annual average price per sq. ft., it is very obvious that the best performers for appreciation over the last 12 months have been the remote parts of the central valley.

    Here is a different version where the cities are ranked in order by appreciation rate:

    We have been pointing out how well Coolidge has been doing for a couple of years now, but anyone can see that 25% is a pretty impressive gain for a single year.

    All of the top 6 locations are on the fringes of the valley and among the top 10, only Youngtown could be classed as a more central location.

    We see Florence, Maricopa and Rio Verde also looking very promising for appreciation over the next 12 months.

    The big cities are way down the table, with Queen Creek at 9% leading the pack and Scottsdale at just under 5% the worst performer among the big 12. We expect better things from Scottsdale over the next 12 months given the recent improvement in its Cromford® Market Index.

    We think many investors are missing the opportunities in these smaller and far-flung locations. There are exceptions however. Things are looking difficult at the moment for Anthem and New River while Gold Canyon and Carefree just don’t enjoy the publicity of Paradise Valley and Scottsdale and tend to get neglected by out-of-state buyers. Despite their beautiful surroundings these upscale locations tend to appreciate more slowly as a result, even when supply is scarce.

    In the West Valley, Youngtown, El Mirage and Sun City have been the top price gainers, while in the Southeast, Apache Junction, Queen Creek and Mesa are top.

    In the Northeast, Fountain Hills and Cave Creek are the leaders, both at the edge of the conurbation.

    Phoenix itself has been only a modest performer, ranked at 27 out of 42 and returning below average appreciation of 6.7%.

    June 13 – The single-family market in the Northeast Valley continues to swing in favor of sellers, especially at the low-end.

    For homes below $500,000:

    • active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS) dropped 31% from 542 to 376 between June 1, 2017 and June 1, 2018
    • quarterly sales (Mar-May) dropped 8% from 947 to 867 between 2017 and 2018
    • average $/SF for those sales climbed 5.2% from $194.52 to $204.72
    • months of supply fell from 1.7 to 1.3

    Clearly the shortage of homes for sale is causing the sales rate to decline.

    For the mid-range between $500,000 and $1 million:

    • active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS) dropped 18% from 1,257 to 1,037 between June 1, 2017 and June 1, 2018
    • quarterly sales (Mar-May) rose 16% from 865 to 1,006 between 2017 and 2018
    • average $/SF for those sales climbed 2.8% from $218.66 to $224.73
    • months of supply fell from 4.4 to 3.1

    For the high-end over $1 million:

    • active listings (excluding UCB & CCBS) dropped 8% from 1,348 to 1,238 between June 1, 2017 and June 1, 2018
    • quarterly sales (Mar-May) rose 31% from 318 to 416 between 2017 and 2018
    • average $/SF for those sales climbed 2.0% from $355.44 to $362.60
    • months of supply fell from 12.7 to 8.9

    All three price ranges show a shift in favor of sellers in Northeast.

    June 12 – The single-family luxury market has grown in volume since last year. Using ARMLS data for the 3 months March, April, May we see:

    • a 26% increase in sales between $500,000 and $1 million
    • a 33% increase in sales between $1 million and $2 million
    • a 41% increase in sales over $2 million

    All this activity has caused inventory to fall compared to last year

    • inventory between $500,000 and $1 million has dropped from 4.9 months to 3.5 months
    • Inventory between $1 million and $2 million has dropped from 10.7 months to 7.7 months
    • inventory over $2 million has dropped from 18.8 months to 12.8 months

    So far this has not had a big effect on pricing. The average price per sq. ft. is up only 2.3% compared to a year ago for homes over $500,000.

    June 11 – The data is preliminary, based on affidavits of value recorded during May, but here are the statistics for iBuyers in Maricopa County during May 2018.

    iBuyer Homes Purchased May 2018 Homes Sold May 2018 Homes Purchased May 2017 Homes Sold May 2017
    Opendoor 257 235 118 63
    OfferPad 99 66 49 33
    Zillow (Signpost Homes) 3 0 0 0

    In addition, we had 2 institutions actively buying during May – Cerberus and Progress Residential. Both are converting homes into rentals.

    So far Zillow has purchased 5 homes (to June 8) at an average of 100.3% of their Zestimate. Only 1 is listed on ARMLS and it currently remains active. The others are listed as “coming soon” on the Zillow site.

    For comparison, over the last 3 weeks Opendoor has paid an average of 96.9% of Zestimate while OfferPad has paid 94.5% of Zestimate. Clearly gross margins are getting squeezed with 5 major players trying to buy homes which are already pretty scarce. The competition is also likely to be putting pressure on the size of the fees charged by iBuyers to home sellers.

    June 8 – The local press has been headlining that sales prices for homes in Maricopa County have hit an all-time high. This is a very misleading statement that I take strong issue with. Although the median sales price has recovered to 2006 levels, the conclusion that sales prices in general are higher than June 2006 is completely wrong.

    There are very few homes that would sell in 2018 for more than they would have sold for in 2006. The vast majority of homes in the valley have not recovered the value they had in 2006 and are still quite a long way from doing so. If home sellers believe they can sell their home for more than it was worth in June 2006, they are going to be bitterly disappointed, unless they live in the heart of Arcadia or a few isolated parts of South or Central Scottsdale. These media stories make life hard for agents trying to set reasonable asking prices when taking new listings.

    The first problem is that the stories in the media are comparing the monthly median sales price for May 2018 with that for June 2006. The homes that sold in May 2018 are a very different collection from the homes that sold in June 2006, so this is an apples to oranges comparison. Let us compare the two sets of homes:

    1. June 2006
      • number of affidavits describing the property as a single-family home = 10,715
      • median sales price = $280,000
      • percentage of homes that were new builds = 28%
      • average sales price = $357,067
      • average home size = 1,840
    2. May 2018
      • number of affidavits describing the property as a single-family home = 9,987
      • median sales price = $285,000
      • percentage of homes that were new builds = 14%
      • average sales price = $354,727
      • average home size = 2,007

    We can see that the sales mix is very different between June 2006 and May 2018. In June 2006 we had twice as many new homes as in May 2018 and the average homes size in 2018 is over 9% larger than in 2006. The average price per sq. ft. is much lower in 2018 than 2006.

    A second problem is that affidavits of value are woefully inaccurate about property types. Hundreds of townhomes and condos are mis-classified as single-family properties every month. Therefore any numbers quoted for single-family homes in May are likely to be wrong until the affidavits have been checked and corrected, which takes several weeks.

    In general, median sales prices are often misused and should NEVER be the basis for comparing the values of homes or comparing new home prices with re-sale prices.

    A much more reasonable measurement is average price per sq. ft. which, though not perfect, adjusts for the difference in the average home size. In June 2006 the average price per sq. ft. of single-family homes sold in Maricopa County through the MLS was $193.65 while the average for May 2018 was $170.02.

    We therefore estimate that the average single-family home in Maricopa County has a 14% rise in price to achieve before it reaches its value in June 2006. Individual homes will obviously vary quite a bit.

    While the median sales price has recovered the level of June 2006, the value of the average home has certainly not achieved this. Do not let your clients be misled.

    June 7 – Our regular table of Cromford® Market Index numbers for the 17 largest cities and their single-family markets is shown below:

    Buyers will be dismayed that the balance of power is moving towards sellers again. 12 of the 17 cities are swinging in favor of sellers with Surprise, Maricopa and Scottsdale the biggest movers in that direction. Fountain Hills and Cave Creek have also improved significantly over the past month.

    The areas moving in favor of buyers do include some large cities – Phoenix, Glendale and Peoria, and Buckeye has moved down the highest percentage. Buckeye tends to have much better supply than elsewhere as it is relatively cheap and quick to build new homes there.

    We have 4 of the 17 cities over 200, but there are 4 more among the secondary cities:

    • Apache Junction – 225
    • Arizona City – 323
    • El Mirage – 257
    • Tolleson – 207

    At only 99.2, Anthem is the only area below 100. This is quite startling give that it was over 200 in January. The market has swung dramatically in favor of buyers in Anthem

    June 6 – The preliminary recording data is in for May 2018 in Maricopa County, allowing us to publish the usual median price spreadsheet.

    Overall sales of single-family and condo/townhouse homes rose 3.5% over May 2017 while the median sales price rose 8.2%. A large part of the increase in the median sales price occurred in the last month, rising from $260,950 to $270,400. New home sales rose a strong 14.2% while re-sales only managed a 2.1% increase. Pricing was the other way round with re-sales increasing their median by 8.7% while new homes managed a 7.6% rise, more than half of which came between April and May. The median for new homes is $349,945, which is 34.7% higher than the $259,800 for re-sales. However we must remember that new homes are still much larger than re-sales for the price per sq. ft. is much closer.

    The summary is that prices are rising fast but sales volumes are rising more slowly now among re-sales. New homes are selling well and pricing for them is picking up momentum.

    June 5 – Yesterday we focused on Fountain Hills, a town that has been improving for sellers. Today we will focus on a location that is going the opposite way – Anthem. The market in Anthem has weakened significantly in the last few months, with its Cromford® Market Index dropping from 163 in March to around 100 today.

    Other negative movements:

    • total active listings 182 versus 155 last year
    • pending listings 26 versus 61 last year
    • monthly sales 51 versus 66 last year
    • days of inventory 112 versus 89 last year
    • contract ratio 47.5 versus 75.6 last year

    It is clear that supply is rising and demand is falling in Anthem, very different from most other parts of the valley.

    As a result, the situation in Anthem is getting much more difficult for sellers and much better for buyers.

    June 4 – Sometimes a geographic location behaves quite differently from surrounding areas and it is not always easy to discern why. A case in point right now is Fountain Hills, which has seen supply fall and sales rise quite dramatically over the past 3 months.

    Here is the weekly active listings chart for Fountain Hills showing listings without a contract:

    In most years, supply increases during the first quarter and then starts to fall. However, in 2018 (the orange line) supply has fallen sharply over the past 3 month and has plummeted from 363 to 242 in just 10 weeks (all property types).

    Meanwhile the year-to-date sales chart looks like this:

    This chart compares sales year-to-date between 2017 and 2018 and you can see that 2018 has opened up a 17% lead, most of which has happened since March.

    The Cromford® Market Index for Fountain Hills has risen from 116.8 on February 20 to 180.4 on June 4.

    Sellers in Fountain Hills must be delighted with these developments.

    June 3 – Cerberus seems to have just about finished the acquisition phase of their big investment in Greater Phoenix homes. Now they are busy renting them out. You can see many of their rental listings on ARMLS under Bullseye Property Management (Nick Stratton). The ownership is vested in Cerberus but the rentals are marketed under the name First Key Homes. Some homes were purchased as new from builders but the majority were re-sales purchased at full market price from the MLS.

    June 1 – The most recent S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® report was released earlier this week and shows a lot of upward movement in pricing. It is based on sales that closed during the first quarter of 2018 and does not include sales from April or May.

    The 20 featured cities are ranked as follows for month-to-month change in their index:

    1. Seattle +2.84%
    2. San Francisco +2.15%
    3. Minneapolis +1.65%
    4. Las Vegas +1.45%
    5. Denver +1.43%
    6. Boston +1.18%
    7. Washington +1.14%
    8. Detroit +1.11%
    9. Chicago +1.10%
    10. Portland +1.01%
    11. San Diego +1.02%
    12. Charlotte +1.01%
    13. Phoenix +0.95%
    14. Los Angeles +0.94%
    15. Atlanta +0.78%
    16. Dallas +0.71%
    17. Miami +0.66%
    18. Tampa +0.61%
    19. Cleveland +0.35%
    20. New York +0.08%

    Despite a strong increase of almost 1%, Phoenix is only ranked in 13% place. It did beat the national index which rose 0.84%.

    The year-over-year-changes were as follows:

    1. Seattle +13.0%
    2. Las Vegas +12.4%
    3. San Francisco +11.3%
    4. Denver +8.6%
    5. Los Angeles +8.1%
    6. Detroit +7.9%
    7. San Diego +7.7%
    8. Tampa +7.5%
    9. Phoenix +6.8%
    10. Portland 6.7%
    11. Charlotte +6.2%
    12. Atlanta +6.2%
    13. Minneapolis +6.1%
    14. Dallas +5.8%
    15. Boston +5.7%
    16. New York +5.2%
    17. Miami +5.0%
    18. Cleveland +4.6%
    19. Washington +3.0%
    20. Chicago +2.8%

    In this table, Phoenix managed to appear in the top half, but its increase was only slightly higher than the national index which rose 6.5%.

    So we conclude that although Phoenix is experiencing strong home price appreciation, it is not out of line with the rest of the USA.


    The data used to create the Cromford® Report is obtained from public records and obtained under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC and ARMLS expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind, whether express, implied or statutory, as to the accuracy of the data used or the merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.


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