The Cromford Report – Daily Observations May 2018
May 1 – The contract ratio compares the number of listings under contract with the number of listings active with no contract. It tells us how hot the market is for any chosen sector. It tends to be lower for higher priced segments where there is always a good supply of active listings. Rather than compare with a standard value, it makes sense to compare segment with its long term average and maximum values. This way we can see how hot the segment is compared with its history.
In the table below we are studying single-family homes in Greater Phoenix by price range:
|Price Range||Contract Ratio May 1, 2018||Long Term Average||Max||Last Time at This Level||Comments|
|Under $100K||65.1||146.7||800.3||Feb 2018|
|$100K – $125K||153.8||136.9||518.3||Jun 2017|
|$125K – $150K||170.0||117.1||325.1||Apr 2018|
|$150K – $175K||275.5||101.7||275.5||never||record high|
|$175K – $200K||234.2||83.1||234.2||never||record high|
|$200K – $225K||167.5||66.4||189.4||June 2012|
|$225K – $250K||131.5||58.6||146.4||June 2012|
|$250K – $275K||117.8||56.1||124.5||April 2018||record high last month|
|$275K – $300K||105.1||49.3||113.3||June 2012|
|$300K – $350K||93.5||43.6||95.1||June 2012|
|$350K – $400K||74.3||37.9||90.2||May 2013|
|$400K – $500K||69.1||32.3||75.7||June 2012|
|$500K – $600K||53.4||26.3||60.5||May 2012|
|$600K – $800K||42.7||22.2||51.9||June 2013|
|$800K – $1M||28.9||16.9||33.6||May 2013|
|$1M – $1.5M||27.9||14.4||30.0||June 2012|
|$1.5M – $2M||14.0||11.7||21.9||April 2018||record high was June 2013|
|$2M – $3M||15.4||8.1||15.4||never||record high|
|Over $3M||9.9||5.1||10.0||June 2015|
- Under $150K, the fire is going out for lack of fuel. There are simply too few listings for it to function as a normal market.
- Between $150K and $200K we have just set new records for the contract ratio (which has only been measured since October 2006). This market is extremely hot, but is in danger of running out of fuel before too long.
- Between $200K and $350K the market is very hot, but not quite as frenzied as the summer of 2012. However the range $250K to $275K did set a new record last month.
- Between $350K and $1.5M the market is much hotter than average but not yet close to breaking record levels set in 2012 or 2013.
- The range between $1.5M and $2M is the coolest but is still well above average. Not in sight of its record set in 2013
- The range between $2M and $3M has not been this hot since we started measuring contract ratios in 2006. It is unusual that its contract ratio exceeds that for $1.5M to $2M.
- The range over $3M is very hot and very close to its all time record.
The supply over $1M remains adequate, but the number of homes going under contract is very strong.
Contract ratio is a seasonal measurement so we expect it to peak in May or June for each year.
© 2018 Cromford Associates LLC
The data used to create the Cromford® Report is obtained from public records and obtained under license from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc (ARMLS). Cromford Associates LLC and ARMLS expressly disclaim and make no representations or warranties of any kind, whether express, implied or statutory, as to the accuracy of the data used or the merchantability or fitness for any particular purpose.
Ruth has done an excellent job of acqainting/educating us with the details of the AZ market. This has been our first experience purchasing an AZ property – and we’re very fortunate to have her assist us. Bless her for her patience with us throughout the process! – Roger (client of Ruth Sells)
No small part of this deal working out was due to the intense negotiations and juggling of our real estate agent, Denise Pruitt with Arizona Best Real Estate. She acted in our best interest at every turn, taking the brunt of the unpleasantness and making it work out. WE WOULD NOT BE IN THIS HOUSE WITHOUT HER. I think she is owed a bedroom, at least. Maybe a portion of the pool. – Eric & Kathryn (clients of Denise Pruitt)
Sheri Jackson is an amazing realtor! After meeting with her the first time, I knew that she had the passion and drive to help find the right home for me. The best part about the entire process was she made it so simple and easy for me to find a place I now call home. I would personally recommend her expertise to anyone looking for a home or rental in the future. – Ashley (client of Sheri Jackson)
I have worked with Cheryl several times (buying and selling) and I can confidently give her my highest recommendation. Cheryl is an intelligent, thorough and motivated agent who will work diligently to provide a pleasant and successful real estate transaction. – R Chang (client of Cheryl Menayas)
Sheri helped us narrow down a list of homes she prepared for us, encouraged us not to just settle and within 48 hours we were signing papers to a home that suited all of our needs. Sheri was very knowledgeable and the made the house hunting experience A LOT OF FUN!! We would personally recommend Sheri to anyone looking to purchase a home in the future. – Bob & Sue H (clients of Sheri Jackson)
Working with you was a great experience. Your knowledge, consulting and negotiating skills made the selling process go so smoothly. I will recommend you to my family, friends and anyone interested in selling or buying a home. – Judy B (client of Vicki Kaplan)
Ruth Sells was just a pleasure to work with and the best Realtor we have had the opportunity of meeting in many years of searching. – the Stumpfs (client of Ruth Sells)
This was my first time selling a house. I was worried about the whole process but then I was introduced to Chris. He took all the pressure off me with his expertise, knowledge of the industry, and his professionalism. Thank you Chris. – Brody M (client of Chris Nace)
Having worked with many realtors over the years, you are the Best! You know your market, took time early on to listen to our needs, stayed on top of all the details…you were an invaluable resource. – Russ and Karen G (client of Vicki Kaplan)
‘I would STRONGLY recommend Colleen to anyone that needs a realtor. She did an outstanding job on the sale of two of my condos. I live out of town and she took care of every detail including resolving some challenging glitches that developed along the way.’ – Steve (client of Colleen Olson)